Why the EUR should go down?

I have three main reasons to bet that the EUR will go down against the USD. They are really simple to understand.
      -The upcoming rise of the US interest rates.
      -The accelerating buys by the ECB.
      -The problems with Greece.

1º Let me explain the things. Firstly the rise in the US interest rates, when a country rises its interest rates means that investing there is more profitable for investors. So they can draw money from abroad. This, can be really important because all the developing countries have interest rates near zero. Even when the FED denies this rise, sooner or later it will happen, and I guess that it will happen before the final of the year.

2º The Europe QE, the accelerating buys by the ECB tumbled the EURUSD last week. When a country injects money its currency lose value.

Simple Explanation of Supply and Demand

This explanation is really simple, but sometimes easy things help to understand. The reasons behind the movements are not as simple as that, but it depends about the timing of your trading strategy. You should have in mind all the things that can affect the Price.
To remark the importance of QE let me show you the next graph:

Behabiour of EURUSD Weekly  during US QE's . Source: www.axitrader.com

As we can see each time that the Fed releashed a quantitative easing the USD lost value against the EUR, maybe this is one of the reasons of the improvement of the US economy.

3º Again the problems with Greece. Tomorrow they will pay to the IMF, but we will see what happen in the next payments.
Also in my humble opinion Europe should be a real union, I mean, Europe should do a fiscal union and centralize some services.

#trading   #fx   #eurusd    #QE   #macroeconomics